Well, to be realistic, that's gonna be least of our concern, as long as our own market is performing accordingly. After much strugglings and hiccups along the way, our own KLCI has FINALLY broke through its historical high and is now in a whole new territory. I don't think this is much to celebrate about as many others have already done this months ago. We are merely playing catch up. Anyway, late is better than never, right?
So, what's next? where do we go from here? Is this sustainable? Or is this the peak we are going to tell our kids years later that, "hey, u know, your dad used to be watching the KLCI reached its all time high at 1365 (or something like that, i don't remember)" in year 2007? These are all answers we are going to know only few years later. Who knows, it might instead reached 1500 or 2000 points as predicted by some of those hard-core analysts after all. It's a choice between being conservative and lock in the profits made so far or take the risk of venturing forward with the rest, most if not all, i would say. (kicking yourself at the corner while others are celebrating usually left a bad taste in the mouth, isn't it?). I believe that some of those that have liquidated during the 1200 points have jumped back into the market. agree?
I don't have a crystal ball that is working properly, I have to based my decision on some sort of plan. As a value investor, whenever I cannot decide on "when to buy", I will look for "what to buy". There are certainly a few stocks out there that are still selling at attractive price, relative to its underlying value. As for my technical analysts friends, I don't know what you think, but I guess you do have a whole tables of graphs that help you make your decisions. This is the beauty of having a system to follow.. see? or else, you will be indifference from those that are betting blindly on the black jack tables and keep shouting "pictures! pictures!" every now and then (ask a gambler friends if you haven't been to a casino before. I beleive this wonderful scene is more seen in Asians casinos)..
1 comment:
Dear Ernest,
Congratulations on your first weblog page and i can see that it's gonna be a big hit sooner or later. Mind those that are reading that even though my name is Edwin Lim and i share many same interests with Ernest Lim, we are not somehow related in anyway whatsover, if you so choose to believe.
Anyway, that's not the point izzit. What i would like to comment is on the fact that when someone don't know when to invest, it's very natural to look into what company to invest. Let's think outside of the box here. Instead of focusing on the stocks to invest, why not consider what assets to invest. Same as Ernest, i always try hard to think what stock to buy, but ignoring the fact that the most important thing is to decide "to stay in the share market or not". thus, i urge that maybe we should try to discuss the global economy or the Asean economy first, before we even considering what stock to buy. It won't matter what stock you own when the market crash isn't it?
I think that's why when people say that they have lock in the profit, they are actually not, IF they are still in the share market. Let's use a casino table for an example. If you make a profit and u leave the casino, then u are locking in to your profit. but, if u just simply win a hand and move on to the next table, you are no much better man. the chances are still there that you might lose what u gain, even your own capital.
so, my opinion is, maybe, we need to start by discussing is 2007-2008 a good time to start owning shares or it's better off invest in bond, cash or property. i used to believe that, the best strategy is to hold stock ALL THE TIME, through good years and bad years and we can emerge as a winner comparing with other asset classes, in the long term. but, it always give me the chill when recalling the 98 financial crisis. maybe we can do that in US, or the global market, but not here in Asia where the fundamentals are always a question mark. how many years of good years do u need to recover from one bad year? nearly a decade. Thus, i think that it will be very interesting if we open the discussion that if 2007-08 going to be a "very good year, a good year, a bad year or a very very bad year". this might all sounds so familiar to others because it's from Kenneth Fisher, whom i regard as the most influential people on me so far. as for Buffett, he's god. i just don't think that his approach can be learned by anyone, as it's based so much on his individual skills and instincts. he can see things others don't. we can learn to do that. we will be very very very successful if we can learn his trade, or, we'll be dead wrong and be beaten severely if we "think that we've learned his style". it's so much more to arts comparing to science. while for Kenneth's method, it's doable.
thanks for the precious opportunity to give in my own thoughts. let's kick start this thing !!
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