Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Bloody market @ August 2007


Yesterday marked one of the heaviest market correction in year 2007, AGAIN!
The earlier correction back in February was even scarier (marked by the arrow), but it rebounded quite well back then and rose into new high without looking back. Anyone who have bought in during the panic selling would have made some profits, theoritically.

Anyway, what we are more concerned now is whether the road ahead is going downhill, or is this merely a minor setbacks on a long and strong upward walk?

I had a funny thinking, I would like to make a prediction on the market and tell you what to do with your money RIGHT NOW. Listen carefully: "Sell whatever you have, this is the beginning of a big disaster! The global market is going to bust and will go into recession for years to come! DO NOT LEAVE ANYTHING BEHIND! JUST SELL!"
(wait, don't pick up the phone to call your broker, before finish reading this article or I will not be responsible for whatever action you might have taken).

Come back and thank me when it happens. And I would appreciate if you could show a journalist what I have written here as a clever prediction of what would happen before it actually does. That's going to make me famous and making me the "Golden Boy" or "Prophet" of the Stock Market, isn't it?

You want to know why I make this call?
It has been my secret weapon, but, I don't mind sharing with you since you have the patience to read until here.

Look, the chance of the market going up or down is 50-50. Of course, there are many other factors that might affect it as a whole, but they will sort of "neutralise" each other out, feel good factors will be covered by negative factors and vice versa. Of course, the probability is not exactly 50-50, but should not be far from it (pardon me, for I haven't scored well in maths). So, making a call is merely like making a head or tail call. Best thing is, if I am right, I am going to be famous, and if I am wrong (in this instance, let's say the market rebounded), I would have lose nothing anyway. Worse come to worst, I will just abandon this blogsite and start a new one elsewhere. Why bother? Why am I saying all this BS? Because I am very not happy with some articles I have read recently on market call. I agree that some of them staged some very strong claims and I totally respect the facts that being brought up. But, many of the so-called experts are merely making calls like what I have done earlier, with the "head I win, tail you lose" kind of thinking. I would prefer them to keep quiet and their crystal ball reading skill to themselves. I do ignore many of them but do like to read some occassionally for a good laugh.

So, after all these BSs, what's the right thing to do RIGHT NOW? As repeated time and again, if we are holding to good and strong companies, we should ignore what the others are doing. The panic sellings are nothing but good chance for us to buy more. Don't you like to go shopping when the market is on sale? But take note though, I am not asking you to buy everything that's on sale, only choose what you like and confortable buying. You don't want to buy a broken 40inch plasma TV, even if it is selling for RM1000, do you? Or, put it another way, you don't want to sell the Toyota Vios you have just bought for half its price, merely because your neighbour has just sold his for the same amount, do you? Same concept.

Conclusion:
Buy what you think is undervalued and sell what you think is overvalued. &

Be Fearful when others are Greedy and be Greedy when others are Fearful - Buffett

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